Sunday, September 26, 2010

The death of English has been exaggerated greatly

I have had a sneaking suspicion that, over the next 10 years, as the Chinese emerge as the number one global economy, that English will disappear as the language of business and travel. After this week, I have had second thoughts.

I was at a trade conference in Budapest, Hungary, a beautiful city with much to offer. I got the impression that it is a vacation destination due to its central European location and numerous natural "baths".

I was struck quickly by how easy it was for me to communicate. Everyone was speaking in English. As I sat at restaurants and visited sites and shops, English was all around. The Italians, French, Germans, Japanese, Swedes, Chinese, and even the Hungarians (and other folks as well) all spoke English, not just to me, but to each other. Italians cannot speak Hungarian, nor can Germans, and so on, so everyone conversed in English. This represents an interesting issue and involves billions of people. Basically, due to the huge influence of Britain and the US after World War II and into the travel and international business age, everyone learned English. Some folks learned other languages, but in Europe, in particular, I think it is clear. Germans know German, and they were taught English, but they do business all over Europe (now the world). Maybe they pick up another language or two, but they cannot cover them all, so English is something they all have in common.

I know now, in retrospect, that this makes sense. But, until I went to a city in a country that was a real tourist destination, I did not realize how pervasive the use of English is. I had an easier time getting around Budapest than any city I have ever visited where English was not a native tongue.

I think, too, that there are other barriers to Chinese becoming a global language:

  • It is a difficult language, foreign in structure and tone to most of the business and travel world.
  • Which dialect should you learn? (I don't know, perhaps one is dominant enough in China to suffice.)
  • There is not yet a global driver to teach it in European, North or South American schools. Kids in these regions that do not already speak English, normally have the option to learn it in school.
So, I can focus on the languages I need most. I tip my hat to those who would try to learn Chinese; they will have a great advantage in the business world to come.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The biggest things going against Chinese as a global language are:

* character orthography as opposed to to an alphabet or a phonetic system -- this alone requires years of learning which makes it hard to introduce as a second language in schools outside of China
* belief amongst the Chinese that no one is capable of learning their language but themselves -- the Chinese themselves are an impediment in the spread of Mandarin globally
* lack of instructors available for teaching outside of China -- even when natives are available, they rarely understand their own language well enough to teach it to foreigners who are used to languages with stricter grammars

There is a standard Chinese, Mandarin, and it is what is unifying China as a whole linguistically, and it also ties China to Singapore and Taiwan. However, it is not a native language for many Chinese speakers as it turns out, and especially in Southern China, many have a great pride in their dialect and don't want to see it go with the times.

I suspect Mandarin will be a lot like Japanese, a fad during the growth period, and then more of a region-specific language, perhaps a pan-Asian language at the most. With India rising along side China and predominantly using English for internal affairs, I suspect English won't be going away for a long time.

English has planted its seeds as an international language much deeper than French ever had.