I happened to think about this on the way to work this morning. During the recent gas shortage in Charlotte and the rise of gas prices in general over the spring and summer, everyone was bemoaning the almost daily price increases. I heard lots of folks saying "How can the value of gas that 'they' bought and keep in the ground go up overnight? It is the same gas that 'they' (the station owners) have already paid for!" Funny, now that gas prices are falling on a daily basis, I don't hear anyone asking the question in reverse.
It amazes me that there are so many people that do not understand the simple concept of something gaining value while you hold on to it. There seems to be no issue regarding the value of land or gold or stamp collections, though. It seems to only apply to gasoline. Hmmm ...
Friday, October 31, 2008
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Ancient History
It has been a busy few weeks since my last post. This week was a particular whirlwind as I spent 3 days in Athens, Greece (still a bit jet lagged).
This was a fascinating city and I did get a chance to get around a bit. I, of course, had to visit the Acropolis first and was rewarded as I expected. An associate said everywhere in Athens there are just knocked down buildings and anywhere you plant a shovel you probably will start a new archaeological dig, but I found it a bit awe inspiring to look at 2000 year old architecture that I only half studied in high school. I found also that I want to learn more, now.
The top of the Acropolis is breathtaking ... figuratively and literally (I am out of shape!). Even with all of the scaffolding for the reconstruction and repair work, the various temples and buildings leave you speechless.
The Parthenon is actually the second site you migrate towards. The first was the "Odeon of Herodes Atticus, a well restored and currently used amphitheater. It is just a short climb from there to the gates of the Acropolis and the first glimpse of the Parthenon.
There are lots of stone pieces all over the ground and, upon close inspection, you can see that they are all numbered and ready to be some part of the reconstruction. The building also has some very, very small reflectors on it that must be used for laser sighting and is probably related to building stabilization or the like. I was particularly interested in the construction of the columns and, not surprisingly, found that they are stacked in much the same way as "legos".
My other favorite building was the "Erechtheum". I particularly liked the statues on one side that, though reproductions, really add to the beauty of the building (the originals were stolen, broken, or placed in protection in a museum in Athens).
From the top of the Acropolis, you can see the Roman Agora, something of a meeting place in old times. I made my way down there and walked for awhile among many, many old ruins. One building has been fully restored (it is now a museum), but looks really out of place with the ruins. The paths are nice with lots of trees and resting places. It is a pleasant walk up to the "Temple of Hephaestus".
I liked it because all of the walls are intact and it looks as if it could actually be used today.
I stayed near the "Temple of the Olympian Zeus" and it was a pleasant walk for lunch and dinner each day to the Plaka, an old neighborhood at the base of the Acropolis that is a good place for food and shopping (and lots of tourists ... thank goodness it is the off season). The meals were very good and reasonably priced. I really enjoyed the mixed grilled vegetables in olive oil. The local oil really has a nice flavor. Lamb meatballs and calamari ... and real Gyros. It was refreshing. The shopping was good too, especially if you like to haggle over price. Reminds me a bit of Tijuana, Mexico, the way they spot tourists.
There was a guy named George that stopped me and asked for the time. He struck up a conversation and, after "figuring out" that I was an American, told me about his job in Houston as a chemical engineer. He liked my name ... "Jimmy, a good Greek name" and wanted to sit for a beer and talk. I let him know my name is actually Hebrew. Turns out he was a front man for a consort bar, trying to lure "customers" to a legitimate bar only to be joined by ladies for companionship. I never made it the bar as I was suspicious and said that we should have a beer at the nearest taverna. He went on his way. I found out his real mission from my associate who also got the same line, but went to the bar before figuring anything out.
At night, after jet lag and an afternoon of sightseeing, it was back to my hotel room that had the really nice view below:
This was a fascinating city and I did get a chance to get around a bit. I, of course, had to visit the Acropolis first and was rewarded as I expected. An associate said everywhere in Athens there are just knocked down buildings and anywhere you plant a shovel you probably will start a new archaeological dig, but I found it a bit awe inspiring to look at 2000 year old architecture that I only half studied in high school. I found also that I want to learn more, now.
The top of the Acropolis is breathtaking ... figuratively and literally (I am out of shape!). Even with all of the scaffolding for the reconstruction and repair work, the various temples and buildings leave you speechless.
The Parthenon is actually the second site you migrate towards. The first was the "Odeon of Herodes Atticus, a well restored and currently used amphitheater. It is just a short climb from there to the gates of the Acropolis and the first glimpse of the Parthenon.
There are lots of stone pieces all over the ground and, upon close inspection, you can see that they are all numbered and ready to be some part of the reconstruction. The building also has some very, very small reflectors on it that must be used for laser sighting and is probably related to building stabilization or the like. I was particularly interested in the construction of the columns and, not surprisingly, found that they are stacked in much the same way as "legos".
My other favorite building was the "Erechtheum". I particularly liked the statues on one side that, though reproductions, really add to the beauty of the building (the originals were stolen, broken, or placed in protection in a museum in Athens).
From the top of the Acropolis, you can see the Roman Agora, something of a meeting place in old times. I made my way down there and walked for awhile among many, many old ruins. One building has been fully restored (it is now a museum), but looks really out of place with the ruins. The paths are nice with lots of trees and resting places. It is a pleasant walk up to the "Temple of Hephaestus".
I liked it because all of the walls are intact and it looks as if it could actually be used today.
I stayed near the "Temple of the Olympian Zeus" and it was a pleasant walk for lunch and dinner each day to the Plaka, an old neighborhood at the base of the Acropolis that is a good place for food and shopping (and lots of tourists ... thank goodness it is the off season). The meals were very good and reasonably priced. I really enjoyed the mixed grilled vegetables in olive oil. The local oil really has a nice flavor. Lamb meatballs and calamari ... and real Gyros. It was refreshing. The shopping was good too, especially if you like to haggle over price. Reminds me a bit of Tijuana, Mexico, the way they spot tourists.
There was a guy named George that stopped me and asked for the time. He struck up a conversation and, after "figuring out" that I was an American, told me about his job in Houston as a chemical engineer. He liked my name ... "Jimmy, a good Greek name" and wanted to sit for a beer and talk. I let him know my name is actually Hebrew. Turns out he was a front man for a consort bar, trying to lure "customers" to a legitimate bar only to be joined by ladies for companionship. I never made it the bar as I was suspicious and said that we should have a beer at the nearest taverna. He went on his way. I found out his real mission from my associate who also got the same line, but went to the bar before figuring anything out.
At night, after jet lag and an afternoon of sightseeing, it was back to my hotel room that had the really nice view below:
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Strap on your seat belt ... we're in for a rough ride!
Have you ever wondered what it is like to lose 25% of your life savings in two weeks ... welcome to my world. I suppose if I hang around long enough, it will come back.
I just love stock market analysts, though. They behave as if the market were a living being. Typically they will say things like 'The market is waiting to respond to the latest news on the war.' or ' The market reacted to statements from Hugo Chavez about the United States' and so on. This is amazing. The activity on the market is the combined activity from millions of institutional and individual investors. There can be no single entity that reacts to individual happenings in the world. Besides, there are so many events each day, good and bad, to cherry pick those events that fit with market performance makes the analyst job way too easy.
There may be some fund managers that react to specific events (overthrow of a key government) or who follow certain trends (say, oil prices for one example). The average Joe, like myself, is far to busy to try to play craps on a daily or hourly basis with my stock portfolio. I re-balance a couple of times a year as do most of the folks I know. So, it would seem to me that there are two main drivers to stock market performance: (1) random fluctuation and (2) herd mentality. The latter seems to drive the big swings due to panic and euphoria.
At the end of the day, we need to look at the long-term performance which is up. This makes perfect sense because companies are investing and growing and as world demand for products and services grows, that fuels the long-term upward trend. One just has to hope that they are not in a position of needing their money during a period of panic ... like now.
It also pains me to hear people directly tie stock market performance to the economic performance. The two are loosely related. Clearly when housing is down, those businesses associated with housing will not perform as well. When money is tight, business associated with travel and vacations don't do as well. You get the picture. What we are talking about here, though, is segments of the economy. The overall economy can chug along at modest growth when there is a stock market slide and, conversely, the economy can be anemic during a bull market. In the end, most people need to eat, clothe themselves, get to work, and provide for families. This would seem to me to indicate that there is an underlying strength in the economy irrespective of what happens in the stock market.
I just love stock market analysts, though. They behave as if the market were a living being. Typically they will say things like 'The market is waiting to respond to the latest news on the war.' or ' The market reacted to statements from Hugo Chavez about the United States' and so on. This is amazing. The activity on the market is the combined activity from millions of institutional and individual investors. There can be no single entity that reacts to individual happenings in the world. Besides, there are so many events each day, good and bad, to cherry pick those events that fit with market performance makes the analyst job way too easy.
There may be some fund managers that react to specific events (overthrow of a key government) or who follow certain trends (say, oil prices for one example). The average Joe, like myself, is far to busy to try to play craps on a daily or hourly basis with my stock portfolio. I re-balance a couple of times a year as do most of the folks I know. So, it would seem to me that there are two main drivers to stock market performance: (1) random fluctuation and (2) herd mentality. The latter seems to drive the big swings due to panic and euphoria.
At the end of the day, we need to look at the long-term performance which is up. This makes perfect sense because companies are investing and growing and as world demand for products and services grows, that fuels the long-term upward trend. One just has to hope that they are not in a position of needing their money during a period of panic ... like now.
It also pains me to hear people directly tie stock market performance to the economic performance. The two are loosely related. Clearly when housing is down, those businesses associated with housing will not perform as well. When money is tight, business associated with travel and vacations don't do as well. You get the picture. What we are talking about here, though, is segments of the economy. The overall economy can chug along at modest growth when there is a stock market slide and, conversely, the economy can be anemic during a bull market. In the end, most people need to eat, clothe themselves, get to work, and provide for families. This would seem to me to indicate that there is an underlying strength in the economy irrespective of what happens in the stock market.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Language in old age
Well, I am trying learn some Japanese. It seems like the right thing to do. I want my daughter-in-law to feel welcome. Herein is the rub, though ... I feel inept at this activity. I did try to learn some German for my job and I found it to be somewhat natural. I can speak at the survival level and get by on my trips to Germany. So why is Japanese so hard? First, let me say that I am cheap and will not pay for expensive classes. Also, I think I am an aural learner for languages. For German, I took it in high school (did not pay attention very well) and college (learned to read). I only felt better when I used the Pimsleur discs in my car. I really seemed to pick it up. Unfortunately, the depth of this training is pretty shallow, as the Pimsleur system does not go into intermediate language.
Well, I have searched for something similar for Japanese. I tried my son's tapes, but they were too fast and disjointed for my 53 year old brain (which is pretty good in most other things). Then, I bought something from Barnes and Noble that was for the car, but moved way too fast and did not integrate well. I have tried Japanese Podcast 101, and it is really good (even works through levels of politeness and is a progressive system) and I am making slow progress, but here is the key ... slow, really slow, progress. I feel inept and incapable. I can't seem to get the pronunciation right and I have a hard time remembering the phrases, because I am fighting the pronunciation.
I wish I knew the answer, but I will keep trying. I think it is fascinating, but I feel slow. I think it must be old age.
Well, I have searched for something similar for Japanese. I tried my son's tapes, but they were too fast and disjointed for my 53 year old brain (which is pretty good in most other things). Then, I bought something from Barnes and Noble that was for the car, but moved way too fast and did not integrate well. I have tried Japanese Podcast 101, and it is really good (even works through levels of politeness and is a progressive system) and I am making slow progress, but here is the key ... slow, really slow, progress. I feel inept and incapable. I can't seem to get the pronunciation right and I have a hard time remembering the phrases, because I am fighting the pronunciation.
I wish I knew the answer, but I will keep trying. I think it is fascinating, but I feel slow. I think it must be old age.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Anyone need a loan?
I guess, like many folks, I need to vent a bit about this "mortgage crisis". I have contacted my representatives and insisted that they oppose the current bill. Instead of giving money away and buying up bad debt (euphemistically termed "toxic paper"), how about the following? 1. Insure the mortgages. The default rate is really pretty low, so the payout from the taxpayers will be pennies on the dollar. 2. Infuse cash into the "system" for lending only and make it available only for lending (ie. it MUST be used for that purpose) to free up the credit markets a bit. Require repayment. So this would be a lending loan. 3. If the money is taken by an institution, then the standard employee severance applies to all personnel. 4. Require lending be no more than 90% of the market value of an asset. Everyone must put at least 10% down. This will take a lot of the risk out of future loans.
Most of the media coverage has it at least partly wrong. While there may be many who want revenge on big companies on Wall Street or their CEO's with the parachutes, that is not my concern nor that of many I have spoken with. My real concern is that we are throwing, probably, a trillion dollars at a problem to make life easier today. The main thing I heard at first was credit seizing up. Fair enough. That will slow the economy. However, one can still get loans. You must have better credit ratings (above 700) and a downpayment or face higher interest rates and more of a downpayment. Great. That is the way it should be. We should not get loans so easily as that is what caused this mess. It sounds cold, but not everyone should own a home. Some folks should rent and put money aside for downpayments. Not everyone should own an expensive car. You see my point. Let credit be a little tight. Let companies spend their equity to some extent to fuel growth. It will take a lot of risk out of the system. This trillion dollars will have to be borrowed by the government (us) and paid back over a long time. I think this borrowing will have an impact on the value of the dollar as well. With the current plan I see no upsides and tons of downsides.
Let's think this thing through.
Thank you.
Jim Robinson
Most of the media coverage has it at least partly wrong. While there may be many who want revenge on big companies on Wall Street or their CEO's with the parachutes, that is not my concern nor that of many I have spoken with. My real concern is that we are throwing, probably, a trillion dollars at a problem to make life easier today. The main thing I heard at first was credit seizing up. Fair enough. That will slow the economy. However, one can still get loans. You must have better credit ratings (above 700) and a downpayment or face higher interest rates and more of a downpayment. Great. That is the way it should be. We should not get loans so easily as that is what caused this mess. It sounds cold, but not everyone should own a home. Some folks should rent and put money aside for downpayments. Not everyone should own an expensive car. You see my point. Let credit be a little tight. Let companies spend their equity to some extent to fuel growth. It will take a lot of risk out of the system. This trillion dollars will have to be borrowed by the government (us) and paid back over a long time. I think this borrowing will have an impact on the value of the dollar as well. With the current plan I see no upsides and tons of downsides.
Let's think this thing through.
Thank you.
Jim Robinson
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